Brennan P F, Emmons H, Silvers J B
Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH.
J Soc Health Syst. 1991;3(2):103-11.
Health-care managers require estimates of employment longevity (time from hire to termination) for use in assessing future pension obligations, costs that are functions of longevity and experience such as fringe benefits, and workforce stability. Existing approaches for obtaining these estimates are problematic, complicated by time-varying data or infeasible data requirements, and may result in biased estimators. Renewal theory is presented as a model for estimating the complete distribution of the longevity of a population when the only data available is censored (i.e., time on the job of current employees). The model's ability to estimate nursing personnel longevity is demonstrated.
医疗保健管理人员需要估算员工在职时长（从入职到离职的时间），以便评估未来的养老金义务、诸如附加福利等与在职时长和工作经验相关的成本，以及员工队伍的稳定性。获取这些估算值的现有方法存在问题，受到随时间变化的数据或不可行的数据要求的影响，可能会导致估计值出现偏差。当仅有审查数据（即当前员工的在职时间）可用时，更新理论被作为一种估算总体在职时长完整分布的模型提出。该模型估算护理人员在职时长的能力得到了验证。
