Omer S B, Sutanto A, Sarwo H, Linehan M, Djelantik I G G, Mercer D, Moniaga V, Moulton L H, Widjaya A, Muljati P, Gessner B D, Steinhoff M C
Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Oct;136(10):1319-27. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807000015. Epub 2008 Jan 4.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of morbidity in children worldwide, although data from equatorial regions are limited. We analysed climatic, spatial, and temporal data for children presenting to hospitals in Lombok island, Indonesia with clinical pneumonia. During the study period, 2878 children presented and 741 RSV cases were identified. In multivariate analysis with an 8-day lag, occurrence of rain was associated with 64% higher incidence of RSV disease [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.38]. A 1% rise in mean relative humidity and 1 degree C increase in mean air temperature was associated with a 6% (IRR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.10) and 44% (IRR 1.44, 95% CI 1.24-1.66) increase in RSV cases, respectively. Four statistically significant local clusters of RSV pneumonia were identified within the annual island-wide epidemics. This study demonstrates statistical association of monsoon-associated weather in equatorial Indonesia with RSV. Moreover, within the island-wide epidemics, localized RSV outbreaks suggest local factors influence RSV disease.
呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）是全球儿童发病的一个重要原因，不过来自赤道地区的数据有限。我们分析了印度尼西亚龙目岛医院收治的临床肺炎患儿的气候、空间和时间数据。在研究期间，有2878名儿童就诊，其中741例确诊为RSV病例。在滞后8天的多变量分析中，降雨与RSV疾病发病率高64%相关[发病率比（IRR）1.64，95%置信区间（CI）1.13 - 2.38]。平均相对湿度每上升1%和平均气温每升高1摄氏度分别与RSV病例增加6%（IRR 1.06，95% CI 1.03 - 1.10）和44%（IRR 1.44，95% CI 1.24 - 1.66）相关。在全岛年度疫情中确定了4个具有统计学意义的RSV肺炎局部聚集区。这项研究表明，印度尼西亚赤道地区与季风相关的天气与RSV存在统计学关联。此外，在全岛疫情期间，局部RSV暴发表明局部因素影响RSV疾病。
