D'Elia A, Newstead S, Cameron M
Accident Research Centre, Monash University, Victoria, Australia.
Annu Proc Assoc Adv Automot Med. 2007;51:465-84.
From December 2000 until July 2002 a package of speed-related initiatives and factors took place in Victoria, Australia. The broad aim of this study was to evaluate the overall impact of the package on crash outcomes. Monthly crash counts and injury severity proportions were assessed using Poisson and logistic regression models respectively. The model measured the overall effect of the package after adjusting as far as possible for non-speed road safety initiatives and socio-economic factors. The speed-related package was associated with statistically significant estimated reductions in casualty crashes and suggested reductions in injury severity with trends towards increased reductions over time. From December 2000 until July 2002, three new speed enforcement initiatives were implemented in Victoria, Australia. These initiatives were introduced in stages and involved the following key components: More covert operations of mobile speed cameras, including flash-less operations; 50% increase in speed camera operating hours; and lowering of cameras' speed detection threshold. In addition, during the period 2001 to 2002, the 50 km/h General Urban Speed Limit (GUSL) was introduced (January 2001), there was an increase in speed-related advertising including the "Wipe Off 5" campaign, media announcements were made related to the above enforcement initiatives and there was a speeding penalty restructure. The above elements combine to make up a package of speed-related initiatives and factors. The package represents a broad, long term program by Victorian government agencies to reduce speed based on three linked strategies: more intensive Police enforcement of speed limits to deter potential offenders, i.e. the three new speed enforcement initiatives just described - supported by higher penalties; a reduction in the speed limit on local streets throughout Victoria from 60 km/h to 50 km/h; and provision of information using the mass media (television, radio and billboard) to reinforce the benefits of reducing low level speeding - the central message of "Wipe Off 5". These strategies were implemented across the entire state of Victoria with the intention of covering as many road users as possible. This study aimed to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the speed-related package. The study objectives were: to document the increased speed camera activity in each speed limit zone and in Melbourne compared with the rest of Victoria; to evaluate the overall effect on crash outcomes of the package; to account as far as possible for the effect on crash outcomes of non-speed road safety initiatives and socio-economic factors, which would otherwise influence the speed-related package evaluation; and to examine speed trends in Melbourne and on Victorian rural highways, especially the proportions of vehicles travelling at excessive speeds. This paper presents the results of the evaluation of the overall impact on crash outcomes associated with the speed-related package, after adjusting as far as possible for the effect of non-speed road safety initiatives and socio-economic factors. D'Elia, Newstead and Cameron (2007) document the study results in full.
2000年12月至2002年7月期间,澳大利亚维多利亚州实施了一系列与速度相关的举措和因素。本研究的总体目标是评估该系列举措对撞车结果的整体影响。分别使用泊松回归模型和逻辑回归模型评估每月的撞车次数和伤害严重程度比例。该模型在尽可能对非速度道路安全举措和社会经济因素进行调整后,衡量了该系列举措的总体效果。与速度相关的系列举措在统计上与伤亡事故的显著估计减少相关,并表明伤害严重程度有所降低,且随着时间推移有进一步减少的趋势。2000年12月至2002年7月期间,澳大利亚维多利亚州实施了三项新的速度执法举措。这些举措分阶段推出,包括以下关键组成部分:移动测速摄像头增加更多隐蔽行动,包括无闪光操作;测速摄像头的运行时间增加50%;降低摄像头的速度检测阈值。此外,在2001年至2002年期间,引入了50公里/小时的城市一般限速(GUSL)(2001年1月),与速度相关的广告有所增加,包括“减去5公里/小时”运动,发布了与上述执法举措相关的媒体公告,并且对超速处罚进行了调整。上述这些因素共同构成了一系列与速度相关的举措和因素。该系列举措代表了维多利亚州政府机构基于三项相互关联的战略实施的一项广泛的长期计划,旨在降低车速:警方更严格地执行限速规定以威慑潜在违法者,即刚刚描述的三项新的速度执法举措,并辅以更高的处罚;将维多利亚州各地当地街道的限速从60公里/小时降至50公里/小时;利用大众媒体(电视、广播和广告牌)提供信息,以强化降低低速超速行驶的益处——“减去5公里/小时”的核心信息。这些战略在维多利亚州全境实施,旨在覆盖尽可能多的道路使用者。本研究旨在评估与速度相关的系列举措的整体有效性。研究目标包括:记录每个限速区域以及墨尔本与维多利亚州其他地区相比测速摄像头活动的增加情况;评估该系列举措对撞车结果的整体影响;尽可能考虑非速度道路安全举措和社会经济因素对撞车结果的影响,否则这些因素会影响与速度相关的系列举措的评估;以及研究墨尔本和维多利亚州农村公路上的速度趋势,特别是超速行驶车辆的比例。本文呈现了在尽可能对非速度道路安全举措和社会经济因素的影响进行调整后,对与速度相关的系列举措相关的撞车结果整体影响的评估结果。D'Elia、纽斯特德和卡梅隆(2007年)全面记录了研究结果。