[Primary risk of hemorrhage due to esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients: significance of the associated endoscopic signs and hepatic functional reserve].

Significance of endoscopic findings associated to esophageal varices (Japanese Research Society for Portal Hypertension) and hepatic dysfunction (Child-Pough classification) as predictive factors of variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients is analyzed. In a cooperative prospective experience 137 cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices were examined in the period May 1987/89: 83 out of them had never bled from their varices (VENS group) while 54 recently had (VES group). A highly significative association was found between variceal size over 3 mm (grade II-III) and bleeding: 96.3% vs. 34.9% in VENS group (p = 0.01); similar association was found with regard to endoscopic detection of "red signs": 92.6% in bleeding group vs. 20.5% in VENS one (p = 0.01). "Red signs" were found on grade II-III varices in 98.5% of cases, and this association were related to variceal bleeding in 75.5%. Hepatic dysfunction was not directly related to bleeding episodes but "red signs" endoscopic detection in VENS group increased with liver function deterioration: 9.1% in Child A class, 27.3% in Child B, and 41.2% in Child C (p = 0.01). The strong association founded between bleeding and both grade II-III variceal size and "red signs" detection, suggest the possibility to identify a high risk group of cirrhotic patients candidate to prophylactic methodologies.