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使用逻辑模型定义主要花粉季节。

Definition of main pollen season using a logistic model.

作者信息

Ribeiro Helena, Cunha Mário, Abreu Ilda

机构信息

Departamento de Botânica, Faculdade de Ciência, University of Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre, 1191, 4150 Porto, Vairão, Portugal.

出版信息

Ann Agric Environ Med. 2007;14(2):259-64.

Abstract

This paper proposes a method to unify the definition of the main pollen season based on statistical analysis. For this, an aerobiological study was carried out in Porto region (Portugal), from 2003-2005 using a 7-day Hirst-type volumetric spore trap. To define the main pollen season, a non-linear logistic regression model was fitted to the values of the accumulated sum of the daily airborne pollen concentration from several allergological species. An important feature of this method is that the main pollen season will be characterized by the model parameters calculated. These parameters are identifiable aspects of the flowering phenology, and determine not only the beginning and end of the main pollen season, but are also influenced by the meteorological conditions. The results obtained with the proposed methodology were also compared with two of the most used percentage methods. The logistic model fitted well with the sum of accumulated pollen. The explained variance was always higher than 97%, and the exponential part of the predicted curve was well adjusted to the time when higher atmospheric pollen concentration was sampled. The comparison between the different methods tested showed large divergence in the duration and end dates of the main pollen season of the studied species.

摘要

本文提出了一种基于统计分析来统一主要花粉季节定义的方法。为此,于2003年至2005年在葡萄牙波尔图地区开展了一项空气生物学研究,使用了一台7天记录式的赫斯特型体积孢子捕捉器。为定义主要花粉季节,对几种过敏相关物种的每日空气中花粉浓度累积值拟合了一个非线性逻辑回归模型。该方法的一个重要特点是,主要花粉季节将由计算出的模型参数来表征。这些参数是开花物候学中可识别的方面,不仅决定了主要花粉季节的开始和结束,还受气象条件影响。用所提出的方法获得的结果还与两种最常用的百分比方法进行了比较。逻辑模型与累积花粉总和拟合良好。解释方差始终高于97%,预测曲线的指数部分与采集到较高大气花粉浓度的时间拟合良好。所测试的不同方法之间的比较表明,所研究物种主要花粉季节的持续时间和结束日期存在很大差异。

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