Sofiev M
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palmenin Aukio, 1, Helsinki, Finland.
Aerobiologia (Bologna). 2017;33(1):167-179. doi: 10.1007/s10453-016-9459-x. Epub 2016 Oct 24.
This discussion paper reveals the contribution of pollen transport conditions to the inter-annual variability of the seasonal pollen index (SPI). This contribution is quantified as a sensitivity of the pollen model predictions to meteorological variability and is shown to be a noticeable addition to the SPI variability caused by plant reproduction cycles. A specially designed SILAM model re-analysis of pollen seasons 1980-2014 was performed, resulting in the 35 years of the SPI predictions over Europe, which was used to compute the SPI inter-annual variability. The current paper presents the results for birch and grass. Throughout the re-analysis, the source term formulations and habitation maps were kept constant, which allowed attributing the obtained variability exclusively to the pollen release and transport conditions during the flowering seasons. It is shown that the effect is substantial: it amounts to 10-20% (grass) and 20-40% (birch) of the observed SPI year-to-year changes reported in the literature. The phenomenon has well-pronounced spatial- and species-specific patterns. The findings were compared with observation-based statistical models for the SPI prediction, showing that such models highlight the same processes as the analysis with the SILAM model.
本讨论文件揭示了花粉传播条件对季节性花粉指数（SPI）年际变化的影响。这种影响被量化为花粉模型预测对气象变化的敏感性，并且被证明是植物繁殖周期引起的SPI变化的一个显著补充。对1980 - 2014年花粉季节进行了专门设计的SILAM模型再分析，得出了欧洲35年的SPI预测结果，用于计算SPI的年际变化。本文给出了桦树和禾本科植物的结果。在整个再分析过程中，源项公式和栖息地地图保持不变，这使得能够将获得的变化完全归因于开花季节的花粉释放和传播条件。结果表明，这种影响相当大：占文献报道的SPI逐年变化的10 - 20%（禾本科植物）和20 - 40%（桦树）。该现象具有明显的空间和物种特异性模式。研究结果与基于观测的SPI预测统计模型进行了比较，结果表明此类模型突出显示了与SILAM模型分析相同的过程。
