Photochem Photobiol Sci. 2008 Jan;7(1):15-27. doi: 10.1039/b717166h.
This year the Montreal Protocol celebrates its 20th Anniversary. In September 1987, 24 countries signed the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Today 191 countries have signed and have met strict commitments on phasing out of ozone depleting substances with the result that a 95% reduction of these substances has been achieved. The Montreal Protocol has also contributed to slowing the rate of global climate change, since most of the ozone depleting substances are also effective greenhouse gases. Even though much has been achieved, the future of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on full compliance of the Montreal Protocol by all countries for the remaining substances, including methyl bromide, as well as strict monitoring of potential risks from the production of substitute chemicals. Also the ozone depleting substances existing in banks and equipment need special attention to prevent their release to the stratosphere. Since many of the ozone depleting substances already in the atmosphere are long-lived, recovery cannot be immediate and present projections estimate a return to pre-1980 levels by 2050 to 2075. It has also been predicted that the interactions of the effects of the ozone layer and that of other climate change factors will become increasingly important.
今年,《蒙特利尔议定书》迎来了其20周年纪念。1987年9月,24个国家签署了《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》。如今,191个国家已签署该议定书,并履行了逐步淘汰消耗臭氧层物质的严格承诺,结果是这些物质的排放量减少了95%。《蒙特利尔议定书》还有助于减缓全球气候变化的速度,因为大多数消耗臭氧层物质也是强效温室气体。尽管已取得诸多成就,但平流层臭氧层的未来仍取决于所有国家对包括甲基溴在内的剩余物质全面遵守《蒙特利尔议定书》,以及对替代化学品生产过程中的潜在风险进行严格监测。此外,库存和设备中存在的消耗臭氧层物质也需要特别关注,以防止它们释放到平流层。由于大气中已经存在的许多消耗臭氧层物质寿命很长,臭氧层无法立即恢复,目前的预测估计到2050年至2075年才能恢复到1980年以前的水平。据预测,臭氧层效应与其他气候变化因素之间的相互作用将变得越来越重要。