Velders Guus J M, Andersen Stephen O, Daniel John S, Fahey David W, McFarland Mack
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Mar 20;104(12):4814-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0610328104. Epub 2007 Mar 8.
The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark agreement that has successfully reduced the global production, consumption, and emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are also greenhouse gases that contribute to the radiative forcing of climate change. Using historical ODSs emissions and scenarios of potential emissions, we show that the ODS contribution to radiative forcing most likely would have been much larger if the ODS link to stratospheric ozone depletion had not been recognized in 1974 and followed by a series of regulations. The climate protection already achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone is far larger than the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Additional climate benefits that are significant compared with the Kyoto Protocol reduction target could be achieved by actions under the Montreal Protocol, by managing the emissions of substitute fluorocarbon gases and/or implementing alternative gases with lower global warming potentials.
1987年的《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》是一项具有里程碑意义的协议,它成功地减少了全球消耗臭氧层物质(ODS)的生产、消费和排放。ODS也是导致气候变化辐射强迫的温室气体。利用历史ODS排放量和潜在排放情景,我们表明,如果1974年没有认识到ODS与平流层臭氧消耗之间的联系,并且随后没有出台一系列法规,ODS对辐射强迫的贡献很可能会大得多。仅《蒙特利尔议定书》已经实现的气候保护就远远超过了《京都议定书》第一个承诺期的减排目标。通过《蒙特利尔议定书》下的行动,通过管理替代氟碳气体的排放和/或实施全球变暖潜能值较低的替代气体,可以实现与《京都议定书》减排目标相比显著的额外气候效益。