Jacups Susan P, Whelan Peter I, Currie Bart J
School for Environmental Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2008 Apr;8(2):283-97. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2007.0152.
The purpose of the present article is to present a review of the Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) literature in relation to potential implications for future disease in tropical northern Australia. Ross River virus infection is the most common and most widespread arboviral disease in Australia, with an average of 4,800 national notifications annually. Of recent concern is the sudden rise in BFV infections; the 2005-2006 summer marked the largest BFV epidemic on record in Australia, with 1,895 notifications. Although not life-threatening, infection with either virus can cause arthritis, myalgia, and fatigue for 6 months or longer, resulting in substantial morbidity and economic impact. The geographic distribution of mosquito species and their seasonal activity is determined in large part by temperature and rainfall. Predictive models can be useful tools in providing early warning systems for epidemics of RRV and BFV infection. Various models have been developed to predict RRV outbreaks, but these appear to be mostly only regionally valid, being dependent on local ecological factors. Difficulties have arisen in developing useful models for the tropical northern parts of Australia, and to date no models have been developed for the Northern Territory. Only one model has been developed for predicting BFV infections using climate and tide variables. It is predicted that the exacerbation of current greenhouse conditions will result in longer periods of high mosquito activity in the tropical regions where RRV and BFV are already common. In addition, the endemic locations may expand further within temperate regions, and epidemics may become more frequent in those areas. Further development of predictive models should benefit public health planning by providing early warning systems of RRV and BFV infection outbreaks in different geographical locations.
本文旨在综述罗斯河病毒（RRV）和巴马森林病毒（BFV）的相关文献，探讨其对澳大利亚北部热带地区未来疾病可能产生的影响。罗斯河病毒感染是澳大利亚最常见、分布最广泛的虫媒病毒病，全国每年平均有4800例通报病例。近期令人担忧的是BFV感染病例突然增多；2005 - 2006年夏季是澳大利亚有记录以来最大规模的BFV疫情，通报病例达1895例。虽然这两种病毒感染不会危及生命，但感染后可能导致关节炎、肌痛和疲劳持续6个月或更长时间，从而造成严重的发病率和经济影响。蚊虫种类的地理分布及其季节性活动在很大程度上由温度和降雨决定。预测模型可作为有用工具，为RRV和BFV感染疫情提供早期预警系统。已开发出各种模型来预测RRV疫情，但这些模型似乎大多仅在区域范围内有效，依赖于当地生态因素。在为澳大利亚北部热带地区开发有用模型时遇到了困难，迄今为止，北领地尚未开发出相关模型。仅开发了一个利用气候和潮汐变量预测BFV感染的模型。据预测，当前温室条件的加剧将导致RRV和BFV已流行的热带地区蚊虫活动高峰期延长。此外，温带地区的流行地点可能会进一步扩大，这些地区的疫情可能会更加频繁。预测模型的进一步发展应通过提供不同地理位置RRV和BFV感染疫情的早期预警系统，使公共卫生规划受益。
