Corral Alvaro, Telesca Luciano, Lasaponara Rosa
Departament de Física, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2008 Jan;77(1 Pt 2):016101. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.77.016101. Epub 2008 Jan 7.
Forest-fire waiting times, defined as the time between successive fires above a certain size in a given region, are obtained for Italy. The probability densities of the waiting times are found to verify a scaling law, despite that fact that the distribution of fire sizes is not a power law. The meaning of such behavior in terms of the possible self-similarity of the process in a nonstationary system is discussed. We find that the scaling law arises as a consequence of the stationarity of fire sizes and the existence of a nontrivial "instantaneous" scaling law, sustained by the correlations of the process; as a consequence, the nonstationary Poisson process model does not account for all the complexity of the structure of fire occurrence.
我们获取了意大利的森林火灾等待时间，其定义为给定区域内连续发生的超过一定规模火灾之间的时间间隔。尽管火灾规模的分布并非幂律分布，但发现等待时间的概率密度符合标度律。本文讨论了这种行为在非平稳系统中过程可能的自相似性方面的意义。我们发现，标度律的出现是火灾规模平稳性以及由过程相关性维持的非平凡“瞬时”标度律存在的结果；因此，非平稳泊松过程模型无法解释火灾发生结构的所有复杂性。
