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无累犯情况如何影响预测准确性:来自安大略省家庭攻击风险评估(ODARA)交叉验证的证据。

How nonrecidivism affects predictive accuracy: evidence from a cross-validation of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA).

作者信息

Hilton N Zoe, Harris Grant T

机构信息

Mental Health Centre Penetanguishene.

出版信息

J Interpers Violence. 2009 Feb;24(2):326-37. doi: 10.1177/0886260508316478. Epub 2008 Apr 7.

Abstract

Prediction effect sizes such as ROC area are important for demonstrating a risk assessment's generalizability and utility. How a study defines recidivism might affect predictive accuracy. Nonrecidivism is problematic when predicting specialized violence (e.g., domestic violence). The present study cross-validates the ability of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) to distinguish subsequent recidivists and nonrecidivists among 391 new cases with less extensive criminal records than previous cross-validation samples, base rate=27%, ROC area=.67. Excluding ambiguous nonrecidivists increases the base rate to 33%, ROC area=.74. Random samples of 50 recidivists and 50 unambiguous nonrecidivists yield ROC areas from .71 to .80. Published norms significantly underestimate official recidivism. Ambiguous nonrecidivism is prevalent and leads to underestimating base rates and predictive accuracy.

摘要

预测效应量(如ROC曲线下面积)对于证明风险评估的普遍性和实用性很重要。一项研究对累犯的定义方式可能会影响预测准确性。在预测特定类型的暴力行为(如家庭暴力)时,非累犯情况存在问题。本研究对安大略省家庭暴力风险评估(ODARA)在391个新案例中区分后续累犯和非累犯的能力进行了交叉验证,这些新案例的犯罪记录比之前交叉验证样本的犯罪记录更不广泛,基础比率 = 27%,ROC曲线下面积 = 0.67。排除不明确的非累犯会使基础比率提高到33%,ROC曲线下面积 = 0.74。50名累犯和50名明确非累犯的随机样本产生的ROC曲线下面积在0.71至0.80之间。已发表的规范显著低估了官方累犯率。不明确的非累犯情况很普遍,并导致低估基础比率和预测准确性。

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