Chen Xinguang, Stanton Bonita, Pach Al, Nyamete Andrew, Ochiai R Leon, Kaljee Linda, Dong Baiqing, Sur Dipika, Bhattacharya S K, Santoso Siti Sapardiyah, Agtini Magdarina, Memon Zahid, Bhutta Zulfiqar, Do Canh Gia, von Seidlein Lorenz, Clemens John
Carman and Ann Adams Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Michigan, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI 48201, USA.
J Health Popul Nutr. 2007 Dec;25(4):469-78.
This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults' perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= -2.6946 + 7.2296 x reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p<0.01; R2=0.992). Using adults' perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease.
本研究旨在建立一个模型，以根据成年人对更广泛社区中伤寒热流行情况的认知来预测儿童伤寒的发病率。对来自五个亚洲国家流行地区的5至15岁儿童的伤寒病例，通过血样伤寒杆菌培养呈阳性来确诊。在相同研究地点，从成年人随机样本中获取伤寒热流行率的估计值。使用回归模型建立预测方程。越南成年人报告的伤寒热百分比和通过血培养检测出的每10万人口伤寒发病率分别为4.7和24.18，中国为3.8和29.20，印度尼西亚为26.3和180.33，印度为66.0和454.15，巴基斯坦为52.7和407.18。建立的预测方程为：伤寒发病率（1/10万）= -2.6946 + 7.2296×报告的伤寒热流行率（%）（F = 31.7，p<0.01；R2 = 0.992）。以成年人对疾病流行情况的认知为基础来估计儿童中的发病率，提供了一种具有成本效益的行为流行病学方法，有助于疾病的预防和控制。
