Vergnaud A-C, Bertrais S, Galan P, Hercberg S, Czernichow S
Centre de Recherche en Nutrition Humaine Ile-de-France, INSERM, U557, Bobigny, France.
Prev Med. 2008 Jul;47(1):61-5. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2008.02.023. Epub 2008 Mar 10.
To evaluate the ability of the Framingham risk function to predict the 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in French men.
3440 men, aged 45 to 60 years, free of CHD at baseline, were selected from the SU.VI.MAX cohort. The expected number of event, obtained from applying the Framingham risk score to the baseline SU.VI.MAX biological and clinical data of 1994/1996, were compared to the actual risks observed in the cohort. The accuracy of the Framingham risk function was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.
The overall Framingham risk function predicted twice as many CHD events than observed. The area under the ROC curve for Framingham risk score was 74%.
The Framingham risk function may discriminate between high risk from low risk subjects, but it is not valid for estimating absolute 10-year CHD risk in this French population.
评估弗明汉风险函数预测法国男性10年冠心病（CHD）风险的能力。
从SU.VI.MAX队列中选取3440名年龄在45至60岁之间、基线时无冠心病的男性。将根据弗明汉风险评分应用于1994/1996年SU.VI.MAX队列的基线生物学和临床数据得出的预期事件数与队列中观察到的实际风险进行比较。使用受试者操作特征（ROC）曲线下面积评估弗明汉风险函数的准确性。
弗明汉风险函数预测的冠心病事件总数是观察到的两倍。弗明汉风险评分的ROC曲线下面积为74%。
弗明汉风险函数可以区分高风险和低风险受试者，但在估计该法国人群的10年绝对冠心病风险时无效。
