Zou Shimian, Fang Chyang T, Dodd Roger Y
American Red Cross Biomedical Services, Rockville, Maryland, USA.
Transfusion. 2008 Sep;48(9):1827-32. doi: 10.1111/j.1537-2995.2008.01750.x. Epub 2008 May 14.
In certain circumstances, there is no method for estimating incidence based on testing results on a single blood sample from first-time blood donors, severely limiting the ability to assess the residual risk of blood-borne infections among this donor subpopulation.
Incidence rates were estimated for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among first-time donors using the formula (P(2) - P(1))/D, where P(1) is the prevalence among blood donations from first-time donors of the minimum eligible ages for donation, P(2) is the prevalence among donations from first-time donors of an older age group, and D is the age difference (in years) between the older and younger donor groups.
Estimating incidence among first-time donors using the proposed method based on a single test for anti-HCV produced similar results to those based on HCV nucleic acid test (NAT) yield cases, by sex and in different periods. Comparison of the proposed method with HIV NAT yield also showed similar results although the small number of HIV NAT yield cases limits interpretation.
The proposed method provides an alternative way for estimating incidence of certain blood-borne infections among first-time donors, provided that our assumptions are met. It helps residual risk assessment in donor populations where first-time donors account for most of the donations and only one test result is available for each donor.
在某些情况下，没有基于首次献血者单次血样检测结果来估计发病率的方法，这严重限制了评估该献血者亚群中血源感染残余风险的能力。
使用公式（P(2) - P(1)）/D来估计首次献血者中人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）和丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）的发病率，其中P(1)是符合最低献血年龄要求的首次献血者所献血液中的患病率，P(2)是年龄较大的首次献血者所献血液中的患病率，D是年龄较大和较小献血者组之间的年龄差（以年为单位）。
使用基于抗-HCV单次检测的提议方法来估计首次献血者中的发病率，按性别和在不同时期，其结果与基于HCV核酸检测（NAT）产生病例的结果相似。将提议方法与HIV NAT产生病例进行比较也显示出相似结果，尽管HIV NAT产生病例数量较少限制了解释。
如果我们的假设得到满足，提议的方法为估计首次献血者中某些血源感染的发病率提供了一种替代方法。它有助于在首次献血者占大多数献血且每个献血者仅有一个检测结果的献血人群中进行残余风险评估。
