Ma Enbo, Iso Hiroyasu, Takahashi Hideto, Yamagishi Kazumasa, Tanigawa Takeshi
Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
Circ J. 2008 Jun;72(6):966-72. doi: 10.1253/circj.72.966.
Mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) has been showing a marked decline in Japan. The objective of this study was to clarify the effects of age, time period, and cohort on mortality from IHD in Japan from 1955 to 2000.
IHD death data from vital statistics and national population surveys were tabulated for 11 5-year age groups (from 30-34 to 80-84) and 10 quinquennial demographic profiles (from 1955 to 2000), to yield 20 5-year birth cohorts (mid-years from 1873 to 1968). The stratified Age-Period-Cohort model with 7 age classes shows: (1) mainly linear age trends for men with IHD, but effects below the linear age trends for women in middle-aged groups (40-74 years); (2) a decline in the effect of time period on IHD for both men and women from 1970 to 1990, and a sharp increase between 1990 and 1995 along with the change of the International Classification of Diseases Code; and (3) 2 patterns for both sexes for non-linear birth cohort effects, an increase (1873-1928) and a decrease (1928-1968) for men, and an increase (1873-1923) and a decrease (1923-1968) for women, with a stronger effect for women than for men born between 1893 and 1938, but the reverse for men and women born between 1938 and 1968.
Declining effects of birth cohort on mortality rates of IHD for young and middle-aged people suggest that mortality rates are likely to continue to decrease in Japan.
在日本，缺血性心脏病（IHD）导致的死亡率已呈现出显著下降。本研究的目的是阐明年龄、时间段和队列对1955年至2000年日本IHD死亡率的影响。
整理了来自生命统计和全国人口调查的IHD死亡数据，这些数据涉及11个5岁年龄组（从30 - 34岁到80 - 84岁）和10个五年一次的人口统计学概况（从1955年到2000年），从而得出20个5年出生队列（从1873年年中到1968年年中）。采用具有7个年龄组的分层年龄 - 时期 - 队列模型显示：（1）男性IHD主要呈线性年龄趋势，但中年组（40 - 74岁）女性低于线性年龄趋势；（2）1970年至1990年期间，时间段对男性和女性IHD的影响均下降，1990年至1995年期间随着国际疾病分类代码的变化而急剧上升；（3）两性的非线性出生队列效应有两种模式，男性为上升（1873 - 1928年）和下降（1928 - 1968年），女性为上升（1873 - 1923年）和下降（1923 - 1968年），1893年至1938年出生的女性效应强于男性，但1938年至1968年出生的男性和女性情况相反。
出生队列对年轻人和中年人IHD死亡率的影响下降表明，日本的死亡率可能会继续下降。
