Can the displacement of a conservatively treated distal radius fracture be predicted at the beginning of treatment?

The aim of this study was to investigate whether the final displacement of conservatively treated distal radius fractures can be predicted after primary reduction. We analysed the radiographic documents of 311 patients with a conservatively treated distal radius fracture at the time of injury, after reduction and after bony consolidation. We measured the dorsal angulation (DA), the radial angle (RA) and the radial shortening (RS) at each time point. The parameters were analysed separately for metaphyseally "stable" (A2, C1) and "unstable" (A3, C2, C3) fractures, according to the AO classification system. Spearman's rank correlations and regression functions were determined for the analysis. The highest correlations were found for the DA between the time points 'reduction' and 'complete healing' (r = 0.75) and for the RA between the time points 'reduction' and 'complete healing' (r = 0.80). The DA and the RA after complete healing can be predicted from the regression functions.