Casman Elizabeth A, Fischhoff Baruch
Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
Risk Anal. 2008 Oct;28(5):1327-42. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01080.x. Epub 2008 Jun 28.
We create an influence diagram of how a plague bioattack could unfold and then use it to identify factors shaping infection risks in many possible scenarios. The influence diagram and associated explanations provide a compact reference that allows risk communicators to identify key messages for pre-event preparation and testing. It can also be used to answer specific questions in whatever unique situations arise, considering both the conditions of the attack and the properties of the attacked populations. The influence diagram allows a quick, visual check of the factors that must be covered when evaluating audience information needs. The documentation provides content for explaining the resultant advice. We show how these tools can help in preparing for crises and responding to them.
我们绘制了一幅关于鼠疫生物攻击可能如何展开的影响图，然后用它来识别在许多可能情况下影响感染风险的因素。该影响图及相关解释提供了一个简洁的参考，使风险沟通者能够确定事件前准备和测试的关键信息。它还可用于在任何出现的独特情况下回答具体问题，同时考虑攻击的条件和受攻击人群的特性。该影响图允许快速直观地检查评估受众信息需求时必须涵盖的因素。文档提供了解释最终建议的内容。我们展示了这些工具如何有助于危机准备和应对。
