[Development of a diabetes risk prediction sheet for specific health guidance].

OBJECTIVE

To develop diabetes risk scores and to produce a diabetes risk prediction sheet that can be used throughout Japan as a tool for health guidance.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 16,289 men and 37,099 women aged 40-69 years who had underwent health check-ups in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan, in 1993, were followed through 2003 (mean follow-up duration; 5.0 yr in men, 5.5 yr in women). Relative risk (RR) of newly developed diabetes (determined by fasting blood glucose > / = 126 mg/dL, resting blood glucose > / = 200 mg/dL, or treatment of diabetes) was calculated according to blood glucose, triglycerides (log-transformed), systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), treatment for hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking habits, alcohol consumption, and fasting status using Cox's proportional hazards model. Diabetes risk scores were calculated by multiplying RRs of individual variables. In addition, we attempted to develop a diabetes risk prediction sheets for specific health guidance of the larger general Japanese population.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, there were 3,654 new cases of diabetes in 1,667 men and 1,987 women. In both men and women, the significant factors included in the risk scores were BMI, blood glucose, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, triglycerides and smoking habits. Based on the computed risk scores, a 12-page diabetes risk prediction sheet was produced. The sheet includes a scoring protocol for diabetes risk scores consisting of a representative value and RR for each risk factor as well as advice for achieving a healthy lifestyle.

CONCLUSION

The diabetes risk prediction sheet developed in this study may be an effective tool to guide individuals at high risk for lifestyle-related disease such as diabetes.