Ehrenkranz N Joel, Sampson Deborah A
Emeritus Director, Florida Consortium for Infection Control, Plantation, FL, USA.
Yale J Biol Med. 2008 Mar;81(1):31-42.
Analyses of past disasters may supply insights to mitigate the impact of recurrences. In this context, we offer a unifying causative theory of Old Testament plagues, which has present day public health implications. We propose the root cause to have been an aberrant El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnection that brought unseasonable and progressive climate warming along the ancient Mediterranean littoral, including the coast of biblical Egypt, which, in turn, initiated the serial catastrophes of biblical sequence - in particular arthropod-borne and arthropod-caused diseases. Located beyond the boundary of focal climate change, inland Goshen would not have been similarly affected. Implicit in this analysis is a framework to consider a possibility of present day recurrence of similar catastrophes and their impact upon essential public services.
对过去灾难的分析可能会提供一些见解,以减轻灾难再次发生时的影响。在此背景下,我们提出一种关于《旧约》瘟疫的统一致病理论,该理论对当今公共卫生具有启示意义。我们认为其根本原因是一种异常的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动遥相关,它给古代地中海沿岸地区,包括圣经中埃及的海岸,带来了不合时宜且持续的气候变暖,进而引发了圣经记载中的一系列灾难——尤其是虫媒传播疾病和由节肢动物引发的疾病。位于局部气候变化边界之外的内陆歌珊地则不会受到类似影响。该分析中隐含着一个框架,可用于考虑当今类似灾难再次发生的可能性及其对基本公共服务的影响。