Valentim J, Sartori A M C, de Soárez P C, Amaku M, Azevedo R S, Novaes H M D
Department of Preventive Medicine, University of São Paulo School of Medicine, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455 - 2 degrees andar Cerqueira César, São Paulo 01246-903, Brazil.
Vaccine. 2008 Nov 18;26(49):6281-91. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.07.021. Epub 2008 Jul 30.
This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood universal varicella vaccination program in Brazil. An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of varicella for 30 years. Assuming a single-dose schedule; vaccine efficacy of 85% and coverage of 80%, the program could prevent 74,422,058 cases and 2905 deaths. It would cost R$ 3,178,396,110 and save R$ 660,076,410 to the society and R$ 365,602,305 to the healthcare system. The program is cost-effective (R$ 14,749 and R$ 16,582 per life-year saved under the societal and the healthcare system's perspective, respectively). The program's cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the vaccine price and number of doses.
本研究对巴西一项儿童普遍接种水痘疫苗计划进行了成本效益分析。建立了一个年龄和时间依赖性动态模型，以估计30年内水痘的发病率。假设采用单剂接种方案；疫苗效力为85%，覆盖率为80%，该计划可预防74422058例病例和2905例死亡。这将花费3178396110雷亚尔，为社会节省660076410雷亚尔，为医疗系统节省365602305雷亚尔。该计划具有成本效益（从社会和医疗系统角度看，每挽救一个生命年分别花费14749雷亚尔和16582雷亚尔）。该计划的成本效益对疫苗价格和剂量数量高度敏感。
