Fox G A
Wildlife Toxicology and Surveys Branch, Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario.
J Toxicol Environ Health. 1991 Aug;33(4):359-73. doi: 10.1080/15287399109531535.
Environmental scientists and managers must determine whether a relationship between an environmental factor and an observed effect is causal and respond accordingly. Epidemiologists have, over the past 150 yr, developed a systematic approach to evaluating these relationships. Their criteria for objectively evaluating the relationship between a suspect cause and a chronic disease are (1) probability, (2) time order, (3) strength of association, (4) specificity, (5) consistency on replication, (6) predictive performance, and (7) coherence. These criteria can be used, with little modification, to evaluate associations in relation to diseases in fish and wildlife suspected to be caused by exposure to chemical pollutants. Some populations of fish and wildlife are members of the same guilds as subpopulations of humans. Investigations of chemically induced disease in these sentinel populations of fish and wildlife may identify the potential risks posed to these human subpopulations. Evidence evaluated using the epidemiologic criteria may assist environmental managers to determine whether a substantive case can be made to initiate preventative or remedial action. By applying the null hypothesis, scientists are forced to consider how much information must be ignored to conclude that a causal relationship does not exist.
环境科学家和管理人员必须确定环境因素与观察到的效应之间的关系是否具有因果性，并据此做出反应。在过去的150年里，流行病学家已经开发出一种系统的方法来评估这些关系。他们客观评估可疑病因与慢性病之间关系的标准包括：（1）概率；（2）时间顺序；（3）关联强度；（4）特异性；（5）重复一致性；（6）预测性能；（7）连贯性。这些标准稍作修改后，可用于评估与怀疑因接触化学污染物而导致的鱼类和野生动物疾病相关的关联。一些鱼类和野生动物种群与人类亚种群属于同一功能群。对这些鱼类和野生动物哨兵种群中化学诱导疾病的调查可能会确定这些人类亚种群面临的潜在风险。使用流行病学标准评估的证据可能有助于环境管理人员确定是否有充分理由采取预防或补救行动。通过应用零假设，科学家们不得不考虑为了得出不存在因果关系的结论必须忽略多少信息。
