Li Yingfeng, Bai Yong
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Sep;40(5):1724-31. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.06.012. Epub 2008 Jul 9.
Highway work zones interrupt regular traffic flows and create safety problems. Improving safety without sacrificing the main function of highways is a challenging task that traffic engineers and researchers have to confront. In this study, the concept of using crash severity index (CSI) for work zone safety evaluation was proposed and a set of CSI models were developed through the modeling of work zone crash severity outcomes. A CSI is a numerical value between zero and one that is estimated from given work zone variables. It is interpreted as the likelihood of having fatality/fatalities when a severe crash occurs in a given work zone. The CSI models were developed using a three-step approach. First, a wide range of crash variables were examined in a comprehensive manner and the significant risk factors that had impact on crash severity were selected. Second, the CSI models were developed using logistic regression technique by incorporating the selected risk factors. Finally, the developed models were validated using the recent crash data and their ability in assessing work zone risk levels were analyzed. Results of this study showed that CSI models can provide straightforward measurements of work zone risk levels.
公路施工区域会中断正常交通流并引发安全问题。在不牺牲公路主要功能的前提下提高安全性,是交通工程师和研究人员必须面对的一项具有挑战性的任务。在本研究中,提出了使用碰撞严重程度指数(CSI)进行施工区域安全评估的概念,并通过对施工区域碰撞严重程度结果进行建模,开发了一套CSI模型。CSI是一个介于0和1之间的数值,它是根据给定的施工区域变量估算得出的。它被解释为在给定施工区域发生严重碰撞时出现人员死亡的可能性。CSI模型采用三步法开发。首先,全面检查了广泛的碰撞变量,并选择了对碰撞严重程度有影响的重要风险因素。其次,通过纳入选定的风险因素,使用逻辑回归技术开发了CSI模型。最后,使用最近的碰撞数据对开发的模型进行验证,并分析其评估施工区域风险水平的能力。本研究结果表明,CSI模型可以直接测量施工区域的风险水平。