Wesson David E, Stephens Derek, Lam Kelvin, Parsons Daria, Spence Laura, Parkin Patricia C
Division of Pediatric Medicine and the Pediatric Outcomes Research Team, Hospital for Sick Children, 555 University Ave, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Pediatrics. 2008 Sep;122(3):605-10. doi: 10.1542/peds.2007-1776.
The goals were to examine bicycle-related mortality rates in Ontario, Canada, from 1991 to 2002 among bicyclists 1 to 15 years of age and 16 years of age through adulthood and to determine the effect of legislation (introduced in October 1995 for bicyclists <18 years of age) on mortality rates.
The average numbers of deaths per year and mortality rates per 100000 person-years for the prelegislation and postlegislation periods, and the percentage changes, were calculated for each of the 2 age groups (1-15 years and >/=16 years). Differences before and after legislation in the 2 age groups were modeled in a time series analysis.
There were 362 bicycle-related deaths in the 12-year period (1-15 years: 107 deaths; >/=16 years: 255 deaths). For bicyclists 1 to 15 years of age, the average number of deaths per year decreased 52%, the mortality rate per 100000 person-years decreased 55%, and the time series analysis demonstrated a significant reduction in deaths after legislation. The estimated change in the number of deaths per month was -0.59 deaths per month. For bicyclists >/=16 years of age, there were only slight changes in the average number of deaths per year and the mortality rate per 100000 person-years, and the time series analysis demonstrated no significant change in deaths after legislation.
The bicycle-related mortality rate in children 1 to 15 years of age has decreased significantly, which may be attributable in part to helmet legislation. A similar reduction for bicyclists 16 years of age through adulthood was not identified. These findings support promotion of helmet use, enforcement of the existing law, and extension of the law to adult bicyclists.
本研究旨在调查1991年至2002年期间加拿大安大略省1至15岁以及16岁至成年自行车骑行者与自行车相关的死亡率,并确定立法(1995年10月针对18岁以下自行车骑行者实施)对死亡率的影响。
计算两个年龄组(1至15岁和≥16岁)在立法前和立法后每年的平均死亡人数、每10万人年的死亡率以及百分比变化。在时间序列分析中对两个年龄组立法前后的差异进行建模。
在这12年期间共有362例与自行车相关的死亡(1至15岁:107例死亡;≥16岁:255例死亡)。对于1至15岁的自行车骑行者,每年的平均死亡人数减少了52%,每10万人年的死亡率降低了55%,时间序列分析表明立法后死亡人数显著减少。每月死亡人数的估计变化为每月-0.59例死亡。对于≥16岁的自行车骑行者,每年的平均死亡人数和每10万人年的死亡率仅有轻微变化,时间序列分析表明立法后死亡人数无显著变化。
1至15岁儿童与自行车相关的死亡率显著下降,这可能部分归因于头盔立法。未发现16岁至成年自行车骑行者有类似的下降情况。这些研究结果支持推广头盔使用、执行现有法律以及将该法律扩展至成年自行车骑行者。