Koopman Richelle J, Mainous Arch G
Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO 65212, USA.
Fam Med. 2008 Jun;40(6):412-6.
The medical literature abounds with risk scores that can help clinicians predict the probability of disease. Risk scores are popular and attractive because they synthesize the effects of several different risk factors for disease in a way that is otherwise too complex for the human mind alone to analyze. However, to optimize clinical decision making, users of risk scores need to consider the factors and methods used to create the score and to recognize the potential limitations of risk scores. Clinicians should consider the patient populations in which the risk score has been developed and validated, the risk factors included in the score, how computing the score might fit into the flow of daily practice, and how risk scores can help estimate pretest probability. An awareness of the uses and potential limitations of using risk assessment tools will aid the clinician in daily clinical decision making. These tools may grow in importance and use with increasing utilization of electronic health records.
医学文献中充斥着各种风险评分，这些评分可帮助临床医生预测疾病发生的概率。风险评分很受欢迎且具有吸引力，因为它们以一种仅凭人类思维单独分析过于复杂的方式，综合了多种不同疾病风险因素的影响。然而，为了优化临床决策，风险评分的使用者需要考虑用于创建评分的因素和方法，并认识到风险评分的潜在局限性。临床医生应考虑风险评分所适用和验证的患者群体、评分中包含的风险因素、计算评分如何融入日常实践流程，以及风险评分如何有助于估计验前概率。了解风险评估工具的用途和潜在局限性将有助于临床医生进行日常临床决策。随着电子健康记录的使用日益增加，这些工具可能会变得更加重要且应用更为广泛。
