Lovejoy T
The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, Washington, DC 20006, United States of America.
Rev Sci Tech. 2008 Aug;27(2):331-8.
There is already widespread change in the natural calendars (phenology) of plants and animals, as well as change in some species distributions. Now threshold change (sudden, fundamental change) in ecosystems is beginning to be observed in nature. At minimum, the natural world will experience an equal amount of warming to that which has already taken place. This all suggests a future with nature and ecosystems very much in flux with profound implications for epidemiology.
植物和动物的自然日历(物候学)已经发生了广泛变化,一些物种的分布也有所改变。现在,自然界开始观察到生态系统的阈值变化(突然的、根本性的变化)。至少,自然世界将经历与已经发生的变暖程度相同的升温。这一切都表明,未来自然和生态系统将处于非常不稳定的状态,对流行病学具有深远影响。