Lawler Joshua J
College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98105, USA.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2009 Apr;1162:79-98. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.04147.x.
Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.
近期地球气候的快速变化已经改变了全球的生态系统。全球变暖与生理特征、物候现象、物种分布、种间相互作用以及干扰机制的变化有关。预计未来的气候变化无疑将导致许多生态系统状态发生更为剧烈的转变。这些转变将给自然资源管理者和保护规划者带来最大的挑战之一。面对不确定的气候条件管理自然资源和生态系统需要新的方法。在此,对已提出的许多应对气候变化管理自然系统的适应策略进行综述。大多数推荐方法是一般原则,许多是管理者已经在使用的工具。新的是转向更灵活的管理视角。为应对气候变化,管理者需要在不同的空间和时间尺度上采取行动。恢复工作的重点将需要从历史物种组合转向潜在的未来生态系统服务。基于潜在未来气候影响情景的积极适应性管理将需要成为日常运作的一部分。而且分类管理可能会成为一个关键选项。尽管已经提出了许多应对气候变化的概念和工具,但关键信息仍然缺失。为成功应对气候变化,需要更好地了解哪些物种和系统可能受气候变化影响最大,如何保护和增强物种的进化能力,如何在新系统中实施有效的适应性管理,或许最重要的是,已提出的一般适应策略在哪些情况和系统中会起作用以及如何能有效应用它们。