Colwell Robert K, Brehm Gunnar, Cardelús Catherine L, Gilman Alex C, Longino John T
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.
Science. 2008 Oct 10;322(5899):258-61. doi: 10.1126/science.1162547.
Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.
许多研究表明，全球变暖正在促使物种分布范围向极地移动，并在温带地区向更高海拔迁移，但对于热带地区而言，有关分布范围变化的证据却很少。在热带地区，由于纬度温度梯度较浅，向上坡方向的迁移比向极地方向的迁移更为可能。基于哥斯达黎加一个海拔样带上植物和昆虫的新数据，我们评估了预计变暖情况下低地生物损耗、分布范围变化缺口和山顶物种灭绝的可能性。我们得出结论，热带低地生物群落可能面临一定程度的净低地生物损耗，这在高纬度地区是没有类似情况的（在高纬度地区，分布范围的变化可能会被来自低纬度地区的物种所补偿），而且很大一部分热带物种很快将面临当前海拔范围与预计海拔范围之间的缺口。
