Pounds J Alan, Bustamante Martín R, Coloma Luis A, Consuegra Jamie A, Fogden Michael P L, Foster Pru N, La Marca Enrique, Masters Karen L, Merino-Viteri Andrés, Puschendorf Robert, Ron Santiago R, Sánchez-Azofeifa G Arturo, Still Christopher J, Young Bruce E
Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation, Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve and Tropical Science Center, Santa Elena, Puntarenas 5655-73, Costa Rica.
Nature. 2006 Jan 12;439(7073):161-7. doi: 10.1038/nature04246.
As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.
随着地球变暖，许多物种可能会消失，这通常是由于疾病动态变化所致。在此我们表明，近期一次与病原体爆发相关的大规模物种灭绝与全球变暖有关。十七年前，在哥斯达黎加的山区，蒙特维德小丑蛙（Atelopus sp.）与金蟾蜍（Bufo periglenes）一同消失。约110种原产于美洲热带地区的小丑蛙物种中，估计有67%遭遇了同样的命运，一种致病性壶菌（蛙壶菌，Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis）被认为是罪魁祸首。通过分析物种消失时间与海表温度和气温变化之间的关系，我们“非常确信”（按照政府间气候变化专门委员会，IPCC的说法，置信度>99%）得出结论，大规模变暖是这些物种消失的关键因素。我们认为，许多高地地区的温度正朝着蛙壶菌生长的最适温度转变，从而助长了疫情爆发。鉴于气候变化促进了传染病传播并侵蚀生物多样性，降低温室气体浓度的紧迫性如今已不容置疑。
