Phytopathology. 2005 Oct;95(10):1200-8. doi: 10.1094/PHYTO-95-1200.
ABSTRACT LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effect of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage, was validated for the Andes of Peru. Validation was needed due to recent modifications made to the model, and because the model had not been formally tested outside of New York State. Prior to validation, procedures to estimate the starting time of the epidemic, the amount of initial inoculum, and leaf wetness duration were developed. Observed data for validation were from field trials with three potato cultivars in the Peruvian locations of Comas and Huancayo in the department of Junín, and Oxapampa in the department of Pasco in 1999 and 2000 for a total of 12 epidemics. These data had not been used previously for estimating model parameters. Observed and simulated epidemics were compared graphically using disease progress curves and numerically using the area under the disease progress curve in a confidence interval test, an equivalence test, and an envelope of acceptance test. The level of agreement between observed and simulated epidemics was high, and the model was found to be valid according to subjective and objective performance criteria. The approach of measuring fitness components of potato cultivars infected with isolates of a certain clonal lineage of P. infestans under controlled conditions and then using the experimental results as parameters of LATEBLIGHT proved to be effective. Fungicide treatments were not considered in this study.
摘要 晚疫病是一个模拟天气、寄主生长和抗性以及杀菌剂对马铃薯叶片上致病疫霉无性繁殖和生长影响的数学模型，该模型在秘鲁安第斯山脉进行了验证。由于模型最近进行了修改，并且尚未在纽约州以外的地区进行正式测试，因此需要进行验证。在验证之前，开发了估计发病起始时间、初始接种量和叶片湿润持续时间的程序。验证数据来自 1999 年和 2000 年在秘鲁胡宁省的科马斯和万卡约以及帕斯科省的奥萨帕马进行的田间试验，使用了三个马铃薯品种，共发生了 12 次晚疫病。这些数据以前没有用于估计模型参数。使用疾病进展曲线对观察到的和模拟的流行病进行图形比较，并使用置信区间测试、等效性测试和接受范围测试中的疾病进展曲线下面积对其进行数值比较。观察到的和模拟的流行病之间的一致性程度很高，根据主观和客观性能标准，该模型被认为是有效的。在受控条件下测量受特定克隆谱系致病疫霉分离物感染的马铃薯品种的适应性成分，然后将实验结果用作 LATEBLIGHT 的参数，这种方法被证明是有效的。本研究未考虑杀菌剂处理。
