Phytopathology. 2005 Dec;95(12):1412-22. doi: 10.1094/PHYTO-95-1412.
ABSTRACT The concept of model qualification, i.e., discovering the domain over which a validated model may be properly used, was illustrated with LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effect of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage. Late blight epidemics from Ecuador, Mexico, Israel, and the United States involving 13 potato cultivars (32 epidemics in total) were compared with model predictions using graphical and statistical tests. Fungicides were not applied in any of the epidemics. For the simulations, a host resistance level was assigned to each cultivar based on general categories reported by local investigators. For eight cultivars, the model predictions fit the observed data. For four cultivars, the model predictions overestimated disease, likely due to inaccurate estimates of host resistance. Model predictions were inconsistent for one cultivar and for one location. It was concluded that the domain of applicability of LATEBLIGHT can be extended from the range of conditions in Peru for which it has been previously validated to those observed in this study. A sensitivity analysis showed that, within the range of values observed empirically, LATEBLIGHT is more sensitive to changes in variables related to initial inoculum and to weather than to changes in variables relating to host resistance.
摘要 模型合格性的概念，即发现验证模型可以正确使用的域，通过 LATEBLIGHT 来说明，这是一个模拟天气、宿主生长和抗性以及杀菌剂对马铃薯叶片上疫霉无性发育和生长影响的数学模型。利用图形和统计检验，将来自厄瓜多尔、墨西哥、以色列和美国的 13 个马铃薯品种（总共 32 个流行期）的晚疫病流行情况与模型预测进行了比较。在任何流行期中都没有使用杀菌剂。在模拟中，根据当地调查员报告的一般类别，为每个品种分配了一个宿主抗性水平。对于 8 个品种，模型预测与观察到的数据相符。对于 4 个品种，模型预测高估了疾病，可能是由于宿主抗性的估计不准确。对于一个品种和一个地点，模型预测不一致。结论是，LATEBLIGHT 的适用范围可以从之前验证过的秘鲁范围内的条件扩展到本研究中观察到的条件。敏感性分析表明，在经验观察到的范围内，LATEBLIGHT 对与初始接种物和天气相关的变量变化比与宿主抗性相关的变量变化更为敏感。
