Analysis of Aggressiveness of Erwinia amylovora Using Disease-Dose and Time Relationships.

ABSTRACT The aggressiveness of an extensive collection of strains of Erwinia amylovora was analyzed using immature fruit and detached pear flower assays under controlled environmental conditions. The analysis was performed by means of a quantitative approach based on fitting data to mathematical models that relate infection incidence to pathogen dose and time. Probit and hyperbolic saturation models were used for disease-dose relationships and provided information on the median effective dose (ED(50)). Values of ED(50) ranged from 10(3) to 10(6) CFU/ml (10 to 10(4) CFU per site of inoculation). A modified Gompertz model was used for disease-time relationships and provided information on the rate of infection incidence progression (r(g)) and time delayed to start of the incidence progress curve (t(0)). Values of r(g) ranged from near 0 to 1.90, and t(0) varied from 1.3 to more than 10 days. The more aggressive strains showed high r(g), low ED(50) values, and short t(0), whereas the less aggressive strains showed low r(g), high ED(50), and long t (0). The aggressiveness was dependent on plant material type and pear cultivars and was significantly different between strains of E. amylovora. Infectivity titration and kinetic analysis of progression of incidence of infections using the immature pear test and a standardized scale are proposed for assessment of strain aggressiveness. The implications of r(g), ED(50), and t(0) for the epidemiology and management of fire blight are discussed, particularly the wide range of aggressiveness among strains, the degree of host specificity observed in pear isolates, the very high infective potential of this pathogen, the independent action of pathogen cells during infection, and the possible advantage of including aggressiveness parameters into fire blight risk forecasting systems.