Decreasing survival benefit from cardiac transplantation for outpatients as the waiting list lengthens.

Many patients are accepted for cardiac transplantation during a period of clinical instability associated with a high risk of death, even though most can be discharged home to await transplantation. As the waiting lists lengthen, priority is awarded solely on the basis of the waiting time of outpatients, who now usually undergo transplantation after they have already survived a major period of jeopardy. To determine the impact of the current waiting times and priority system on the previously expected benefit offered by transplantation, 1-year actuarial survival without transplantation was recalculated after each month without transplantation for 214 potential candidates with an ejection fraction of 0.17 +/- 0.05 discharged on tailored medical therapy after evaluation. These data were compared with the 1-year survival data of 88 outpatients who underwent transplantation. Actuarial survival after 1 year was 67% on tailored therapy compared with 88% after transplantation (p = 0.009). Death without transplantation was sudden in 43 of 51 patients, resulting from hemodynamic decompensation in 8. For outpatients already surviving 6 months without transplantation, actuarial survival over the next 12 months was 83% without transplantation. Thus, the expected improvement in survival after transplantation would be only 5% over the subsequent year for patients waiting 6 months, which is the waiting time for many outpatients. Such patients should be reevaluated to determine whether transplantation remains indicated during the next year.