2006/2007年巴西登革热疫情动态
Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil.
作者信息
Coelho Giovanini E, Burattini Marcelo Nascimento, Teixeira Maria da Glória, Coutinho Francisco Antonio Bezerra, Massad Eduardo
机构信息
Programa Nacional de Controle da Dengue, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brasil.
出版信息
Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2008 Sep;103(6):535-9. doi: 10.1590/s0074-02762008000600004.
We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (lambda) and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that lambda and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.
我们分析了2006年10月至2007年7月期间全国146个城市的登革热发病率，这些城市在2006年10月进行了幼虫指数快速检测（LIRA）监测。其中，我们选取了在此期间报告了500例及以上病例的61个城市。我们计算了这61个城市登革热的发病率系数、感染强度（λ）和基本繁殖数（R0），并将这些变量与LIRA进行关联。我们得出结论，λ和R0与病例数的关联比LIRA更强。此外，2006/2007年登革热季节的平均R0几乎与2001/2002年季节计算的R0一样高，2001/2002年季节是巴西历史上最严重的登革热季节。
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