Muma J B, Munyeme M, Samui K L, Siamudaala V, Oloya J, Mwacalimba K, Skjerve E
Department of Disease Control, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Trop Anim Health Prod. 2009 Jun;41(5):783-9. doi: 10.1007/s11250-008-9252-0. Epub 2008 Oct 24.
A cohort study was conducted in the livestock-wildlife interface areas of Zambia to determine cattle mortality and commercial off-take rates among adult cattle as well as factors influencing them. A total of 416 animals from 43 herds were followed up for one year and animals were individually identified and their fate was indicated as sold, slaughtered, dead or present as appropriate. The overall mortality incidence risk was estimated at 7.5%. Cattle in Kazungula were at a greater risk of dying compared to those in Blue Lagoon and Lochnivar. Annual off-take was estimated at 13.7% (8.1-19.3%), unadjusted values, and 16.4% (8.1-24.5%) after adjusting for sampling fraction in primary sampling units (herds) and area stratification. Area variations were observed with Kazungula recording the highest in both instances, which was attributed to a contagious bovine pleural pneumonia (CBPP) outbreak. Herd size and gender were observed to influence cattle mortality rates. Cattle in the middle-sized herds (50-150 cattle) recorded high mortality rates (OR = 3.91) compared to smaller herds (10-50) and so were females compared to males (OR = 4.16). The logistic regression model showed that cattle death was influenced by managerial factors and that off-take rates tend to increase in the face of disease outbreaks.
在赞比亚的家畜-野生动物交界地区开展了一项队列研究，以确定成年牛的死亡率和商业出栏率以及影响这些指标的因素。对来自43个牛群的416头牛进行了为期一年的跟踪，对每头牛进行单独识别，并根据情况注明其命运为出售、屠宰、死亡或现存。总体死亡发病风险估计为7.5%。与蓝湖和洛赫尼瓦的牛相比，卡宗古拉的牛死亡风险更高。未调整值的年出栏率估计为13.7%（8.1 - 19.3%），在对初级抽样单位（牛群）中的抽样比例和区域分层进行调整后为16.4%（8.1 - 24.5%）。观察到区域差异，在这两种情况下卡宗古拉的数值最高，这归因于一场牛传染性胸膜肺炎（CBPP）疫情。观察到牛群规模和性别会影响牛的死亡率。与较小牛群（10 - 50头牛）相比，中型牛群（50 - 150头牛）的牛死亡率较高（比值比 = 3.91），雌性牛与雄性牛相比也是如此（比值比 = 4.16）。逻辑回归模型表明，牛的死亡受管理因素影响，并且在疾病爆发时出栏率往往会增加。
