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马里南部的人口动态与牛群数量变化

Demographic dynamics and off-take of cattle herds in southern Mali.

作者信息

Ba Alassane, Lesnoff Matthieu, Poccard-Chapuis Rene, Moulin Charles-Henri

机构信息

Institut d'Economie Rurale, CRRA de Sikasso, Programme Bovins, BP16, Sikasso, Mali.

出版信息

Trop Anim Health Prod. 2011 Aug;43(6):1101-9. doi: 10.1007/s11250-011-9808-2. Epub 2011 Mar 3.

DOI:10.1007/s11250-011-9808-2
PMID:21369849
Abstract

The herds of 95 families were monitored for 1 year in eight villages in the cotton-growing region of southern Mali. In 2006-2007, reproduction performances were average, with 0.54 calvings/year per cow, and mortality was low. Herd numerical productivity is not very high, less than 0.13/year, because of the high proportion of males kept for animal draught. Depending on the herd size, the behaviour of the families differs, in terms of off-take and in-take of animals. Families that only have one or two draught animals seek to increase their animal draught capacity, with a negative net off-take (-0.13/year). Families with two to three cows have a very low net off-take (0.02/year), with culling of adult animals compensated by purchase. They therefore capitalised this year, with an annual herd growth of 8%. Families with a very large herd (20 to 50 cows) take off more of their stock, with a net off-take of 0.08/year (very few animal purchases) and make a stock growth of 5%. And finally, families with an average-sized herd (6 to 19 cows) take off the whole of the year's production, with a net off-take of 0.11/year and a nil stock growth rate. The use of a demographic model made it possible to measure the sensitivity of the productivity rate to the different demographic parameters.

摘要

在马里南部棉花种植区的8个村庄,对95个家庭的畜群进行了为期1年的监测。在2006 - 2007年,繁殖性能处于平均水平,每头母牛每年产犊0.54头,死亡率较低。由于用于畜力的雄性比例较高,畜群数量生产率不是很高,低于每年0.13头。根据畜群规模不同,家庭在牲畜出栏和补栏方面的行为存在差异。只有一两头役畜的家庭试图提高其畜力,净出栏率为负(-0.13/年)。拥有两三头母牛的家庭净出栏率很低(0.02/年),成年动物的淘汰通过购买来弥补。因此,他们在本年度实现了资本积累,畜群年增长率为8%。拥有非常大的畜群(20至50头母牛)的家庭出栏更多牲畜,净出栏率为0.08/年(很少购买牲畜),畜群增长5%。最后,中等规模畜群(6至19头母牛)的家庭出栏了全年的产量,净出栏率为0.11/年,畜群增长率为零。使用人口统计学模型能够衡量生产率对不同人口统计学参数的敏感性。

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本文引用的文献

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Mortality and commercial off-take rates in adult traditional cattle of Zambia.赞比亚成年传统牛的死亡率和商业收购率。
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