Hagan Michael P, Anderson Debra L, Caldwell Melissa S, Kemper Therese S
Ethan Allen School, Box 900, Wales, WI 53183-0900, USA.
Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2010 Feb;54(1):61-70. doi: 10.1177/0306624X08325348. Epub 2008 Oct 28.
This study looked at 12 juveniles in Wisconsin who were recommended by experts for commitment under Chapter 980, known as the Sexually Violent Person Commitments Act, but who ultimately were not committed. The purpose was to determine the accuracy of these assessments and risk for sexual reoffending for juvenile sexual offenders. The results found a rate of 42% sexual recidivism among these individuals, with a 5-year at-risk period. This figure is in contrast to the low rates of sexual recidivism reported in the general juvenile sexual research. This provides evidence that the capability to assess the risk in juvenile sexual re-offending may at times be higher than previously estimated. Implications of these unusual results are discussed.
本研究观察了威斯康星州的12名青少年，这些青少年被专家推荐依据第980章（即《性暴力者收容法》）进行收容，但最终未被收容。目的是确定这些评估的准确性以及青少年性犯罪者再次性犯罪的风险。结果发现这些个体的性累犯率为42%，处于5年的风险期。这一数字与一般青少年性研究中报告的低性累犯率形成对比。这表明评估青少年再次性犯罪风险的能力有时可能比之前估计的要高。文中讨论了这些异常结果的影响。
