Murthy Gvs, Gupta Sanjeev K, John Neena, Vashist Praveen
Community Ophthalmology Unit, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India.
Indian J Ophthalmol. 2008 Nov-Dec;56(6):489-94. doi: 10.4103/0301-4738.42774.
India is a signatory to the World Health Organization resolution on Vision 2020: The right to sight. Efforts of all stakeholders have resulted in increased number of cataract surgeries performed in India, but the impact of these efforts on the elimination of avoidable blindness is unknown.
Projection of performance of cataract surgery over the next 15 years to determine whether India is likely to eliminate cataract blindness by 2020.
Data from three national level blindness surveys in India over three decades, and projected age-specific population till 2020 from US Census Bureau were used to develop a model to predict the magnitude of cataract blindness and impact of Vision 2020: the right to sight initiatives.
Using age-specific data for those aged 50+ years it was observed that prevalence of blindness at different age cohorts (above 50 years) reduced over three decades with a peak in 1989. Projections show that among those aged 50+ years, the quantum of cataract surgery would double (3.38 million in 2001 to 7.63 million in 2020) and cataract surgical rate would increase from 24025/million 50+ in 2001 to 27817/million 50+ in 2020. Though the prevalence of cataract blindness would decrease, the absolute number of cataract blind would increase from 7.75 million in 2001 to 8.25 million in 2020 due to a substantial increase in the population above 50 years in India over this period.
Considering existing prevalence and projected incidence of cataract blindness over the period 2001-2020, visual outcomes after cataract surgery and sight restoration rate, elimination of cataract blindness may not be achieved by 2020 in India.
印度是世界卫生组织“视觉2020：享有看见的权利”决议的签署国。所有利益相关者的努力已使印度白内障手术的实施数量有所增加，但这些努力对消除可避免盲症的影响尚不清楚。
预测未来15年白内障手术的实施情况，以确定印度到2020年是否有可能消除白内障致盲。
利用印度在三十年期间进行的三次国家级盲症调查的数据，以及美国人口普查局预测的到2020年的特定年龄人口数据，建立一个模型来预测白内障致盲的程度以及“视觉2020：享有看见的权利”倡议的影响。
使用50岁及以上人群的特定年龄数据观察到，不同年龄组（50岁以上）的失明患病率在三十年中有所下降，1989年达到峰值。预测显示，在50岁及以上人群中，白内障手术量将翻倍（从2001年的338万例增至2020年的763万例），白内障手术率将从2001年每百万50岁及以上人群24025例增至2020年的每百万50岁及以上人群27817例。尽管白内障致盲患病率会下降，但由于在此期间印度50岁以上人口大幅增加，白内障盲人的绝对数量将从2001年的775万增至2020年的825万。
考虑到2001 - 2020年期间白内障致盲的现有患病率和预测发病率、白内障手术后的视觉效果及视力恢复率，印度到2020年可能无法实现消除白内障致盲。
