A metapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in African sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems.

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is endemic in several developing countries. Our objective is to evaluate the regional CBPP spread and persistence in a mixed crop-livestock system in Africa. A stochastic compartmental model in metapopulation is used, in which between-herd animal movements and the within-herd infection dynamics are explicitly represented. Hundred herds of varying size are modelled, each sending animals to n other herds (network degree). Animals are susceptible, latent, infectious, chronic carrier or resistant. The role of chronic carriers in CBPP spread being still debated, several chronic periods and infectiousness are tested. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence on model outputs of these parameters and of pathogen virulence, between-herd movement rate, network degree, and calves recruitment. Model outputs are the probability that individual- and group-level reproductive numbers R(0) and R(*) are above one, the metapopulation infection duration, the probability of CBPP endemicity (when CBPP persists over 5 years), and the epidemic size in infected herds and infected animals. The most influential parameters are related to chronic carriers (infectiousness and chronic period), pathogen virulence, and recruitment rate. When assuming no CBPP re-introduction in the region, endemicity is only probable if chronic carriers are assumed infectious for at least 1 year and to shed the pathogen in not too low an amount. It becomes highly probable when assuming high pathogen virulence and high recruitment rate.