Fu Lawrence D, Aliferis Constantin
Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA.
AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2008 Nov 6;2008:222-6.
The single most important bibliometric criterion for judging the impact of biomedical papers and their authors work is the number of citations received which is commonly referred to as citation count. This metric however is unavailable until several years after publication time. In the present work, we build computer models that accurately predict citation counts of biomedical publications within a deep horizon of ten years using only predictive information available at publication time. Our experiments show that it is indeed feasible to accurately predict future citation counts with a mixture of content-based and bibliometric features using machine learning methods. The models pave the way for practical prediction of the long-term impact of publication, and their statistical analysis provides greater insight into citation behavior.
判断生物医学论文及其作者工作影响力的唯一最重要的文献计量标准是所获得的引用次数,通常称为引用计数。然而,这个指标要在论文发表几年后才可得。在本研究中,我们构建了计算机模型,仅使用论文发表时可用的预测信息,就能在长达十年的时间范围内准确预测生物医学出版物的引用次数。我们的实验表明,使用机器学习方法,结合基于内容的特征和文献计量特征,确实可以准确预测未来的引用次数。这些模型为实际预测出版物的长期影响力铺平了道路,并且它们的统计分析为引用行为提供了更深入的见解。
AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2008-11-6
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