估算2001年9月11日世界贸易中心双塔内的人口数量：一种捕获再捕获法。
Estimating the World Trade Center tower population on September 11, 2001: a capture-recapture approach.
作者信息
Murphy Joe
机构信息
RTI International, 230 W Monroe St, Suite 2100, Chicago, IL 60606, USA.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2009 Jan;99(1):65-7. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2007.124768. Epub 2008 Nov 13.
Abstract
I applied the capture-recapture method to estimate the World Trade Center tower population at the time of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Available lists helped identify 8965 survivors and 2152 confirmed casualties. The capture-recapture model suggested that an additional 4435 survivors were present, putting the total count of all present at 15,552 (95% confidence interval=15,216, 15,897). An accurate estimate represents the potential number at risk for trauma as a result of direct exposure to the events of the day.
摘要
我运用捕获再捕获法来估算2001年9月11日恐怖袭击发生时世贸中心双塔内的人员总数。现有名单帮助确认了8965名幸存者和2152名已证实的遇难者。捕获再捕获模型表明，当时还存在另外4435名幸存者，这使得当时现场的总人数达到15552人（95%置信区间=15216, 15897）。准确的估算代表了因直接暴露于当日事件而可能遭受创伤的潜在人数。
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