Incremental prognostic value of exercise hemodynamic variables in chronic congestive heart failure secondary to coronary artery disease or to dilated cardiomyopathy.

To determine the prognostic value of hemodynamic variables at rest and during exercise, 49 patients with chronic congestive heart failure undergoing hemodynamic evaluation at rest and during symptom-limited exercise were followed for 1 year. One-year mortality rate was 33%. On univariate analysis, nonsurvivors differed significantly from survivors in pulmonary arterial wedge pressure at rest (22 +/- 10 vs 15 +/- 10 mm Hg; p = 0.01) and during exercise (32 +/- 9 vs 24 +/- 9 mm Hg; p = 0.003), stroke work index at rest (19 +/- 6 vs 25 +/- 9 g-m/m2; p = 0.03) and during exercise (20 +/- 7 vs 32 +/- 14 g-m/m2; p = 0.001) and exercise-induced increment in stroke work index (0.5 +/- 0.4 vs 7 +/- 8 g-m/m2; p = 0.004), but not with respect to left ventricular ejection fraction, exercise duration, peak oxygen consumption or peak left ventricular hydraulic power. Patients with a peak exercise stroke work index less than 20 g-m/m2 had a 66% mortality rate compared with a mortality rate of 13% in patients with a peak exercise stroke work index greater than 20 g-m/m2 (p = 0.0001). Multiple logistic regression analysis identified pulmonary arterial wedge pressure at rest and peak exercise stroke work index as the only independent predictors of mortality. A receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that peak exercise stroke work index provided significant incremental prognostic information over the resting hemodynamic variables.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)