Campos Cavalcanti Maciel Alvaro, Oliveira Guerra Ricardo, Villaverde Gutiérrez Carmen
Departamento de Fisioterapia, Universidad Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil.
Rev Esp Geriatr Gerontol. 2008 Nov-Dec;43(6):337-45. doi: 10.1016/s0211-139x(08)75188-6.
To analyze cognitive deficit as a risk factor for death in elderly residents in the community and its relationship with variables related to sociodemographic factors, physical health, and functional capacity.
A prospective study was carried out in the city of Santa Cruz, Brazil, in 310 randomly selected elderly individuals who were followed-up for 53 months. Predictive factors were sociodemographic and neuropsychiatric variables, physical health, and functional capacity. The statistical methods used were bivariate analysis (survival analysis), and Cox regression (multivariate analysis) with respective hazard ratios (HR). A value of P<.05 was considered statistically significant and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.
A total of 60 (20.5%) elderly residents died during the study. The main cause of death was cardiovascular disease. The mean time until death was approximately 24.8 months. The main risk factors identified in Cox analysis were cognitive deficit (HR=4.22), stroke (HR=3.08) and dependency for basic activities of daily living (HR=3.55).
Cognitive deficit is an independent risk factor for death. The results of the present study could be useful in formulating future health policies aiming to reduce mortality in the elderly.
分析认知缺陷作为社区老年居民死亡的危险因素及其与社会人口学因素、身体健康和功能能力相关变量的关系。
在巴西圣克鲁斯市对310名随机选取的老年人进行了一项前瞻性研究，随访53个月。预测因素包括社会人口学和神经精神变量、身体健康和功能能力。所采用的统计方法为双变量分析（生存分析）和Cox回归（多变量分析），并计算各自的风险比（HR）。P<0.05被认为具有统计学意义，并计算95%置信区间（CI）。
共有60名（20.5%）老年居民在研究期间死亡。主要死因是心血管疾病。平均死亡时间约为24.8个月。Cox分析确定的主要危险因素为认知缺陷（HR=4.22）、中风（HR=3.08）和日常生活基本活动依赖（HR=3.55）。
认知缺陷是死亡的独立危险因素。本研究结果可能有助于制定未来旨在降低老年人死亡率的卫生政策。
