Maciel Alvaro Campos Cavalcanti, Oliveira Guerra Ricardo
Programa de Mestrado em Fisioterapia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, rua Moises Gosson, 1442, Lagoa Nova, CEP 59056-060 Natal-RN, Brazil.
Curr Gerontol Geriatr Res. 2010;2010. doi: 10.1155/2010/127605. Epub 2010 Sep 1.
Background. Identifying the risk factors peculiar to each population has a great relevance, because it enables health policy formulators to analyze information accurately and by doing so, define objectives and action programs aimed at a qualitative and economically feasible solution to the problem. Thus, this study aimed at identifying the risk factors for survival in elderly in a city in the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. Methods. A prospective study was carried out, where 310 elderly persons were selected to form a baseline. The follow-up was 53 months. The predictive variables were divided into sociodemographic, physical health, neuropsychiatric and functional capacity. Statistical analysis was performed using bivariate analysis, survival analysis, followed by Cox regression in the multivariate analysis. Results. A total of 60 (19.3%) elderly individuals died during the follow-up. The survival mean was 24.8 months. In the Cox analysis, dependence in basic activities of daily living (HR = 3.55), cognitive deficit (HR = 4.22) and stroke (HR = 3.35) continued as independent risk factors for death. Discussion. The risk factors found in the study can be interpreted as the primary predictors for death among elderly members of the community.
背景。识别各人群特有的风险因素具有重大意义，因为这能使卫生政策制定者准确分析信息，进而确定旨在以定性且经济可行的方式解决问题的目标和行动计划。因此，本研究旨在识别巴西北里奥格兰德州（RN）某城市老年人的生存风险因素。方法。开展了一项前瞻性研究，选取310名老年人作为基线。随访时间为53个月。预测变量分为社会人口统计学、身体健康、神经精神和功能能力方面的变量。采用双变量分析、生存分析进行统计分析，随后在多变量分析中进行Cox回归分析。结果。共有60名（19.3%）老年人在随访期间死亡。平均生存时间为24.8个月。在Cox分析中，日常生活基本活动依赖（HR = 3.55）、认知缺陷（HR = 4.22）和中风（HR = 3.35）仍是死亡的独立风险因素。讨论。本研究中发现的风险因素可被视为社区老年成员死亡的主要预测因素。
