White Michael J, Muhidin Salut, Andrzejewski Catherine, Tagoe Eva, Knight Rodney, Reed Holly
Population Studies and Training Center, 68 Waterman Street, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
Demography. 2008 Nov;45(4):803-16. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0035.
In this article, we undertake an event-history analysis of fertility in Ghana. We exploit detailed life history calendar data to conduct a more refined and definitive analysis of the relationship among personal traits, urban residence, and fertility. Although urbanization is generally associated with lower fertility in developing countries, inferences in most studies have been hampered by a lack of information about the timing of residence in relationship to childbearing. We find that the effect of urbanization itself is strong, evident, and complex, and persists after we control for the effects of age, cohort, union status, and education. Our discrete-time event-history analysis shows that urban women exhibit fertility rates that are, on average, 11% lower than those of rural women, but the effects vary by parity. Differences in urban population traits would augment the effects of urban adaptation itself Extensions of the analysis point to the operation of a selection effect in rural-to-urban mobility but provide limited evidence for disruption effects. The possibility of further selection of urbanward migrants on unmeasured traits remains. The analysis also demonstrates the utility of an annual life history calendar for collecting such data in the field.
在本文中，我们对加纳的生育情况进行了事件史分析。我们利用详细的生活史日历数据，对个人特征、城市居住状况和生育之间的关系进行更精细、更确切的分析。尽管在发展中国家，城市化通常与较低的生育率相关，但大多数研究的推断都因缺乏关于与生育相关的居住时间信息而受到阻碍。我们发现，城市化本身的影响是强烈、明显且复杂的，并且在我们控制了年龄、队列、婚姻状况和教育程度的影响之后仍然存在。我们的离散时间事件史分析表明，城市女性的生育率平均比农村女性低11%，但这种影响因胎次而异。城市人口特征的差异会增强城市适应本身的影响。分析的扩展指向农村到城市流动中选择效应的作用，但提供的干扰效应证据有限。未测量特征上进一步选择向城市迁移的可能性仍然存在。该分析还证明了年度生活史日历在实地收集此类数据方面的效用。
