Begg Dorothy, Langley John
Injury Prevention Research Unit, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2009 Mar;10(1):1-8. doi: 10.1080/15389580802485904.
In 1987, to address an increasing problem of injury among young drivers, New Zealand chose a graduated driver licensing system (GDLS), in preference to raising the minimum car driver licensing age. Since 1987 the GDLS has contributed to a significant reduction in young driver injury, but a recent spate of high-profile crashes has raised public concern about young drivers and road safety. In response to this concern, a bill has been introduced into the parliament to increase the minimum driver licensing age from 15 to 16 years. In this article we critically examine some of the arguments against raising the licensing age. Our motivation for doing this is that many of the arguments against raising the driver's license age, though they have high face validity, are often presented without any supporting evidence.
Our sources for argument include Hansard (New Zealand parliament's official record), various public media, various agencies Web sites, census data, and published papers. The arguments examined against raising the age were the impact on the mobility of 15- and 16-year-olds, disadvantage to the rural sector, alternative transport options, increasing the age shifts the problem, changing the law will not change young driver behaviors, changing the law will not fix the problem, and education is the answer.
For each of the topics available, data were examined to quantify the extent to which these factors would affect young drivers if the minimum driver licensing age was raised to 16 years.
The evidence demonstrates that young age, independent of experience, is a major determinant of risk; therefore, raising the minimum licensing age would have safety benefits. We also show that many of the arguments against raising the age are based on either no evidence or misinformation. Though raising the licensing age would to some extent disadvantage the rural sector, it may also be in the rural sector where the greatest gains in crash reduction are made.
1987年，为应对年轻驾驶员中日益严重的受伤问题，新西兰选择了分级驾驶员执照制度（GDLS），而不是提高汽车驾驶员执照的最低年龄。自1987年以来，GDLS促成了年轻驾驶员受伤情况的显著减少，但最近一系列备受瞩目的撞车事故引发了公众对年轻驾驶员和道路安全的关注。为回应这一关切，一项法案已提交议会，将驾驶员执照的最低年龄从15岁提高到16岁。在本文中，我们批判性地审视了一些反对提高执照年龄的论点。我们这样做的动机是，许多反对提高驾驶员执照年龄的论点，尽管表面上很有说服力，但往往没有任何支持证据。
我们的论点来源包括《议会议事录》（新西兰议会官方记录）、各种公共媒体、各种机构网站、人口普查数据和已发表的论文。针对提高年龄所审视的论点包括对15岁和16岁青少年出行的影响、对农村地区的不利影响、替代交通选择、提高年龄会使问题转移、改变法律不会改变年轻驾驶员的行为、改变法律无法解决问题以及教育才是答案。
对于每个可用主题，都对数据进行了审查，以量化如果将驾驶员执照最低年龄提高到16岁，这些因素会在多大程度上影响年轻驾驶员。
证据表明，年龄小，无论经验如何，都是风险的主要决定因素；因此，提高最低执照年龄将带来安全益处。我们还表明，许多反对提高年龄的论点要么没有证据支持，要么是错误信息。虽然提高执照年龄在一定程度上会对农村地区不利，但在农村地区减少撞车事故方面可能也会取得最大成效。
