Long-term consequences of non-intentional flows of substances: modelling non-intentional flows of lead in the Dutch economic system and evaluating their environmental consequences.

Substances may enter the economy and the environment through both intentional and non-intentional flows. These non-intentional flows, including the occurrence of substances as pollutants in mixed primary resources (metal ores, phosphate ores and fossil fuels) and their presence in re-used waste streams from intentional use may have environmental and economic consequences in terms of pollution and resource availability. On the one hand, these non-intentional flows may cause pollution problems. On the other hand, these flows have the potential to be a secondary source of substances. This article aims to quantify and model the non-intentional flows of lead, to evaluate their long-term environmental consequences, and compare these consequences to those of the intentional flows of lead. To meet this goal, the model combines all the sources of non-intentional flows of lead within one model, which also includes the intentional flows. Application of the model shows that the non-intentional flows of lead related to waste streams associated with intentional use are decreasing over time, due to the increased attention given to waste management. However, as contaminants in mixed primary resources application, lead flows are increasing as demand for these applications is increasing.