The role of tobacco control policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in an Eastern European nation: results from the Albania SimSmoke simulation model.

The Albania SimSmoke simulation model is used to examine the effects of tobacco control policies. The model is used to consider the projected trends in smoking prevalence and associated smoking-attributable deaths in the absence of new policies, and then to examine the effect of new policies that are consistent with the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) on these outcomes. The model shows that significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases. Acomprehensive strategy to further reduce smoking rates should include a media campaign complete with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, a comprehensive cessation treatment program, strong health warnings, advertising bans, and youth access laws. Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model helps to identify important information needed for both modeling and policymaking. The effectiveness of future tobacco control policy will require proper surveillance and evaluation schemes for Albania.