Kimura S, Shinkawa S, Mago J, Yamamoto M, Sakai M, Sugisaki T, Karaki H, Sugiura K
Agriculture and Trade Directorate, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2 rue André Pascal, F-75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.
Rev Sci Tech. 2008 Dec;27(3):781-92. doi: 10.20506/rst.27.3.1835.
Currently in Japan, there are 32,000 active veterinarians, mainly engaged in small and large animal practice and public animal health and public health services. In the face of the notable increase in recent years in the proportion of female students enrolled in veterinary schools and in the number of households with companion animals, a model was developed to predict the supply and demand of veterinarians toward 2040 in Japan. Surveys were conducted on sampled households and veterinarians to estimate input variables used in the supply and demand model. From this data it is predicted that there might be somewhere between a shortage of 1,000 to an over-supply of 3,700 veterinarians engaged in small animal practice in 2040. This, however, will depend on possible changes in the number of visits made to veterinarians by small animal owners and the efficiency of practices in the future. The model also predicts that there will be a shortage of around 1,100 veterinarians in large animal practice in 2040. Considering the many assumptions made to estimate the input variables used in the model, the results of this study do not provide definitive conclusions, but provide a base for discussions on what will be needed in the veterinary profession in the future.
目前在日本，有32000名活跃的兽医，主要从事大、小动物诊疗以及公共动物卫生和公共卫生服务。鉴于近年来兽医学校女生入学比例以及饲养伴侣动物的家庭数量显著增加，开发了一个模型来预测到2040年日本兽医的供需情况。对抽样家庭和兽医进行了调查，以估算供需模型中使用的输入变量。根据这些数据预测，到2040年，从事小动物诊疗的兽医可能短缺1000人至供应过剩3700人。然而，这将取决于未来小动物主人拜访兽医的次数可能发生的变化以及诊疗机构的效率。该模型还预测，到2040年，大型动物诊疗领域将短缺约1100名兽医。考虑到在估算模型中使用的输入变量时做了许多假设，本研究结果并未提供确凿结论，但为讨论未来兽医行业的需求奠定了基础。
