Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal, UAB-IRTA, Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain.
Vet J. 2010 May;184(2):182-6. doi: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2009.02.002. Epub 2009 Mar 14.
A stochastic model was used to estimate the number of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases that may have occurred in Catalonia (north-east Spain) from January 1990 to December 2015. The model allowed the evolution of the unobserved cases to be estimated differentiating the population into two subgroups: (1) livestock slaughtered for human consumption without clinical signs and (2) cattle at increased risk (including fallen stock, clinical suspects, emergency slaughtered cattle and cattle with clinical signs at ante mortem inspection). If the first bovine affected by BSE had been introduced into the region in 1986, the model predicted that during the period of study the surveillance system would detect a median of 197 outbreaks (2.5-97.5 percentiles: 157-245). The estimated median number of outbreaks that may have appeared before the establishment of the monitoring program was 80 (2.5-97.5 percentiles: 35-152), and the number of cases would have peaked in 2001.
采用随机模型估计了 1990 年 1 月至 2015 年 12 月期间西班牙加泰罗尼亚（东北部）可能发生的牛海绵状脑病（BSE）病例数。该模型允许对未观察到的病例的演变进行估计，将人群分为两个亚组：（1）无临床症状而被屠宰用于人类消费的牲畜；（2）处于较高风险中的牛（包括死亡牛、临床疑似病例、紧急屠宰牛以及在宰前检查时出现临床症状的牛）。如果第一例受 BSE 影响的牛是在 1986 年被引入该地区的，那么该模型预测，在研究期间，监测系统将检测到中位数为 197 次暴发（2.5-97.5 百分位数：157-245）。在建立监测计划之前，估计可能出现的暴发中位数为 80 次（2.5-97.5 百分位数：35-152），病例数将在 2001 年达到峰值。
