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西尼罗河病毒感染的季节性和疫情爆发

Seasonality and outbreaks in West Nile virus infection.

作者信息

Cruz-Pacheco Gustavo, Esteva Lourdes, Vargas Cristobal

机构信息

IIMAS, UNAM, Mexico City 04510, Mexico.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2009 Aug;71(6):1378-93. doi: 10.1007/s11538-009-9406-x. Epub 2009 Mar 14.

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the impact of seasonal variations on the dynamics of West Nile Virus infection. We are interested in the generation of new epidemic peaks starting from an endemic state. In many cases, the oscillations generated by seasonality in the dynamics of the infection are too small to be observable. The interplay of this seasonality with the epidemic oscillations can generate new outbreaks starting from the endemic state through a mechanism of parametric resonance. Using experimental data we present specific cases where this phenomenon is numerically observed.

摘要

在本文中,我们分析了季节变化对西尼罗河病毒感染动态的影响。我们关注从地方病状态开始产生新的流行高峰。在许多情况下,感染动态中季节性产生的振荡太小而无法观测到。这种季节性与流行振荡的相互作用可以通过参数共振机制从地方病状态引发新的疫情爆发。利用实验数据,我们展示了在数值上观察到这种现象的具体案例。

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